صحيفة رباع
هوى الجنيه المصري أكثر من 10% إلى مستويات منخفضة “غير مسبوقة” في الأسبوع الأخير، بعد التعليق المفاجئ للمساعدات النفطية التي تقدمها السعودية.
وقال متعاملون في السوق السوداء إنهم باعوا الدولار بسعر 15 جنيها أمس الثلاثاء، مقارنة مع 14.20-14.25 جنيه قبل أسبوع. لكن عدداً من المستوردين أبلغوا وكالة الأنباء رويترز اليوم الأربعاء أنهم دفعوا ما بين 15.20 و15.68 جنيه لتدبير الدولارات وسط نقص حاد وتهاو في الثقة.
ويعني التراجع الحاد اتساع الفجوة مع السعر الرسمي البالغ 8.78جنيه للدولار وتنامي الضغوط على مصر لخفض قيمة عملتها ووضع حد لحالة عدم التيقن التي تثني الاستثمار الأجنبي.
شح الدولار..
وتجد مصر صعوبة في تدبير الدولارات منذ انتفاضة 2011 التي أدت إلى عزوف السياح والمستثمرين الأجانب. واستنزفت جهودها للدفاع عن الجنيه احتياطيات كانت تبلغ 36 مليار دولار قبل الانتفاضة لتصل إلى 19.6 مليار دولار في نهاية سبتمبر أيلول.
وأفلتت مصر من الأزمة بفضل مساعدات بمليارات الدولارات من حلفاء خليجيين مثل السعودية منذ منتصف 2013.
لكن قرار السعودية وقف إمدادات المنتجات النفطية المكررة في مطلع أكتوبر تشرين الأول، أثار مخاوف السوق من تأثيراته على الاقتصاد المصري.
وذكرت رويترز أن متعاملين أبلغوها الأسبوع الفائت أن “الهيئة المصرية العامة للبترول” اضطرت إلى الإسراع بزيادة مناقصاتها رغم نقص الدولار وتنامي المتأخرات المستحقة لمنتجي النفط.
وقال مسؤول حكومي إن هيئة البترول تنوي تخصيص أكثر من 500 مليون دولار هذا الشهر لشراء المنتجات البترولية.
ونقلت رويترز عن أنجوس بلير، مدير العمليات في “فاروس” القابضة قوله: “تكلفة الوقود الذي تحتاج مصر استيراده 140 مليون دولار أسبوعيا… يعني هذا عدم توافر العملة الصعبة التي كان من الممكن توافرها بأنحاء أخرى من السوق.”
ويعطي البنك المركزي الأولوية في توفير العملة الصعبة للسلع الضرورية مثل الأغذية الأساسية والدواء منذ أكثر من عام.
وتضطر شركات القطاع الخاص ولاسيما تلك المستوردة لسلع كمالية إلى اللجوء للسوق السوداء لتدبير الدولارات بما أدى إلى هوة واسعة مع السعر الرسمي.
وقال تاجر سلع إنه اشترى 700 ألف دولار من السوق السوداء اليوم بسعر 15.68 جنيه بعد أن سأل في أكثر من مكان. وقال إنه حصل على أسعار وصلت إلى 15.80 جنيه.
وقال آخر إنه تلقى عرضا بسعر 16 جنيها للدولار. وقال ثالث إنه توقف عن شراء الدولار عند 14.5 جنيه تخوفا من عدم قدرته على تحميل التكلفة على العملاء.
وقال التاجر الأول “السلع الأساسية ستشترى لكن الكماليات والمنتجات الفاخرة سيكون من الصعب توريدها وستصل إلى مرحلة تصبح فيها الأسعار باهظة بشكل يعوق الشراء وسيتوقف التجار… عن الشراء لعجزهم عن تصريف مخزونهم الأصلي.
وتابع: “ما لم يضخ البنك المركزي دولارات كافية في النظام بعد خفض قيمة العملة… فما سيحدث بالفعل أن الدولار سيقفز.”
تعويم قبل الغرق..
وثمة تكهنات واسعة النطاق بأن مصر قد تخفض قيمة الجنيه في أي وقت لسد الفجوة مع السوق السوداء.
وكان محافظ البنك المركزي قال إنه سيدرس تعويم الجنيه إذا زادت الاحتياطيات على 25 مليار دولار. وتزيد الاحتياطيات على نحو مطرد في الأشهر الأخيرة مع سعي مصر لتكوين سيولة كافية كطبقة حماية قبيل أي تغيير في قيمة العملة.
وفي الشهر الماضي تسلمت مصر شريحة أولى قيمتها مليار دولار من قرض للبنك الدولي بثلاثة مليارات دولار. واتفقت الإمارات العربية المتحدة في أغسطس آب على إيداع مليار دولار في حين كانت الحكومة تجري محادثات مع الرياض للحصول على ما بين مليارين وثلاثة مليارات دولار.
وتسألت “فاروس” القابضة في مذكرة إلى العملاء “محور هذه المسألة هو ما إذا كانت مصر مازالت ستحصل على وديعة المليارين إلى الثلاثة مليارات دولار من السعودية في غضون الأسبوعين القادمين.” والجواب الموكد بالطبع لا .
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